Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP18161
Authors: Philip Saur; Arthur Seibold; Elizaveta Smorodenkova; Hosny Zoabi
Abstract: We study how occupations shape individual and aggregate retirement behavior. First, we document large differences in individual retirement ages across occupations in U.S. data. We then show that retirement behavior among European workers is strongly correlated with U.S. occupational retirement ages, indicating an inherent association between occupations and retirement that is present across institutional settings. Finally, we find that occupational composition is highly predictive of aggregate retirement behavior across 45 countries. Our findings suggest that events affecting occupational structure, such as skill-biased technological change or international trade, have consequences for aggregate retirement behavior and social security systems.
Keywords: retirement; occupational distribution; cross-country analysis
JEL Codes: E24; H55; J14; J24; J26; J82
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Occupational composition (J21) | Retirement behavior (J26) |
| U.S. occupation-predicted retirement age (J26) | Retirement age among European workers (J26) |
| Predicted retirement ages based on occupational composition (J26) | Aggregate retirement behavior across countries (E10) |
| Changes in occupational structure (J21) | Aggregate retirement behavior (D15) |
| Occupational characteristics (J29) | Retirement age (J26) |