Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP18146
Authors: Gian Maria Campedelli; Gianmarco Daniele; Andrea Martinangeli; Paolo Pinotti
Abstract: Citizens’ support is crucial to effectively combat organized crime. Contrary to prior studiesthat have identified a negative correlation between victimization and trust in the state, we findthat exposinga representative sample of 6,000 individuals in Italy to journalistic images of organizedcrime-related violence increases trust towards institutions and state performance. We attribute thisfinding to a "rally around the flag" effect, rather than to the decrease in homicide rates occurringover the last decades – in fact, individuals wrongly believe that homicides have increased during suchperiod. Updating beliefs on the real trend in violence does not appear to modify this relationship.Overall, these findings highlight how exposure to violence, especially when linked to organized groups,might strengthen state support.
Keywords: organized crime; Italy; mafias; social trust; experiments
JEL Codes: D70; D72; H3; O52
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Awareness of violence associated with organized crime (K42) | State support (H81) |
| Exposure to journalistic images of organized crime-related violence (K42) | Trust in institutions (O43) |
| Exposure to journalistic images of organized crime-related violence (K42) | Perceived institutional quality (D02) |
| Exposure to journalistic images of organized crime-related violence (K42) | Trust in political institutions (D73) |
| Exposure to journalistic images of organized crime-related violence (K42) | Social trust (Z13) |
| Exposure to journalistic images of organized crime-related violence (K42) | Preferences for public safety (H76) |