Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP18119
Authors: Vania Stavrakeva; Jenny Tang
Abstract: One of the most famous puzzles in international finance is the disconnect between exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals at business cycle frequencies. We disprove this puzzle by showing that the majority of variation in exchange rates atmonthly and quarterly frequencies can be explained by macroeconomic news, which account for as much as 91 percent of the quarterly exchange rate variation during periods of US economic recessions and 64 percent over all periods. The main driverof the reconnect is exchange rates responding to past rather than contemporaneous news—a result inconsistent with the theory of uncovered interest rate parity (UIP). We discuss a number of theoretical models that can explain this surprising result.These include models featuring deviation from UIP due to the presence of currency risk premia, regulatory or institutional frictions, or models featuring deviation from full information rational expectations.
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Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| macroeconomic news (E60) | exchange rate variation (F31) |
| lagged macroeconomic news (E66) | exchange rate movements (F31) |
| lagged macroeconomic news (E66) | exchange rate variation (F31) |
| macroeconomic news (E60) | exchange rate changes (F31) |