Disasters with Unobservable Duration and Frequency: Intensified Responses and Diminished Preparedness

Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP18026

Authors: Viral Acharya; Timothy Johnson; Suresh Sundaresan; Steven Zheng

Abstract: No abstract available

Keywords: rare disasters; parameter uncertainty; mitigation; welfare costs; overreaction

JEL Codes: D6; D8; E21; E32; G10


Causal Claims Network Graph

Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.


Causal Claims

CauseEffect
parameter uncertainty (C51)economic behavior (D22)
uncertainty about duration (C41)intensified responses from agents (L85)
uncertainty about duration (C41)amplification mechanism (C59)
parameter uncertainty (C51)extreme welfare costs (D69)
uncertainty about arrival rate (D89)less investment in mitigation and insurance (H84)
removing parameter uncertainty (C29)welfare gain (D69)

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