Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP17997
Authors: Federico Boffa; Vincenzo Mollisi; Giacomo Ponzetto
Abstract: Poor performance by the established political class can drive voters towards anti-establishment outsiders. Is the ineffectiveness of incumbent politicians an important driver of the recent rise of populist parties? We provide an empirical test exploiting a sharp discontinuity in the wage of local politicians as a function of population in Italian municipalities. We find that the more skilled local politicians and more effective local government in municipalities above the threshold cause a significant drop in voter support for the populist Five-Star Movement in regional and national elections. Support for incumbent governing parties increases instead.
Keywords: populism; government efficiency; quality of politicians; political agency
JEL Codes: D72; D73; H70
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Higher wages for local politicians (J38) | Increase in the quality of local government (H70) |
| Increase in the quality of local government (H70) | Decrease in voter support for the populist Five Star Movement (M5S) (D79) |
| Higher wages for local politicians (J38) | Decrease in voter support for the populist Five Star Movement (M5S) (D79) |
| Increase in the quality of local government (H70) | Increase in support for incumbent governing parties (D79) |
| Higher wages for local politicians (J38) | Increase in support for incumbent governing parties (D79) |