Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP17841
Authors: Ellen Munroe; Anastasiia Nosach; Moises Pedrozo; Eleonora Guarnieri; Juan Felipe Riano; Ana Tur Prats; Felipe Valencia Caicedo
Abstract: This article reviews the literature on the multifaceted consequences of historical conflict. We revisit three key topics, which are especially relevant for the current Ukrainian context. 1) The negative long-term impact of bombing campaigns and political repression against civilians. 2) The interplay between forced migration, refugees, and war. 3) The role of gender and war, with a special focus on sex ratios and conflict-related sexual violence. We conclude with an empirical investigation of the Russian war against Ukraine, including aforementioned historical determinants such as ethnic populations, historical political repression and voting outcomes.
Keywords: gender; conflict; bombing; ukraine
JEL Codes: D74; N10; O10
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Political participation (D72) | Violence (D74) |
| Sex ratios (J79) | Conflict-related sexual violence (F51) |
| Bombing campaigns (H56) | Economic development (O29) |
| Bombing campaigns (H56) | Social capital (Z13) |
| Historical political repression (P26) | Political identities and behaviors (D72) |
| Ethnic demographics (J15) | Conflict dynamics (D74) |
| Bombing campaigns (H56) | Local tax collection (H26) |