Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP17819
Authors: Giorgio Bellettini; Carlotta Berticeroni; Daniela Iorio; Chiara Monfardini; Giovanni Prarolo
Abstract: Exploiting an individual-level administrative dataset in a large Italian municipality, we investigate the impact of income shocks and exposure to ethnic diversity on electoral turnout. A large positive income shock increases turnout only among the poor, while both adverse income and diversity shocks tend to dampen turnout. Estimates are larger at the lower tail of theincome distribution, where a large negative income shock reduces turnout by 7.9%, and among poor elderly people whose turnout drops by 13.5%. The entry of a populist party induces a relative increase (decrease) in turnout among the poor (rich) who suffered an income loss.
Keywords: electoral turnout; administrative data; ethnic diversity; income shocks
JEL Codes: D72; D31
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| large positive income shock (H31) | electoral turnout (K16) |
| large negative income shock (H31) | electoral turnout (K16) |
| entry of a populist party (D72) | electoral turnout (K16) |
| entry of a populist party (D72) | electoral turnout among the rich (D72) |
| exposure to ethnic diversity (J15) | electoral turnout (K16) |