Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP17816
Authors: Marta Golin; Christopher Rauh
Abstract: In this paper, we establish a causal effect of workers' perceived probability of losing one's job due to automation on worker's policy preferences and workplace intentions. In a representative sample of the US workforce, we elicit the perceived fear of losing one's job to robots or artificial intelligence. We document a strong relationship between fear of automation and intentions to join a union, retrain and switch occupations, preferences for higher taxation, higher government handouts, populist attitudes, and voting intentions. We then show a causal effect of providing information about occupation-specific job loss probabilities on preferred levels of taxation and handouts. In contrast, the information treatment does not affect workers' intentions to self-insure by retraining or switching occupations, but it increases workers' self-reported likelihood of joining a union to seek more job protection. The treatment effects are mostly driven by workers who are informed about larger job loss probabilities than they perceived.
Keywords: automation; information treatment; political attitudes; political preferences; redistribution; inequality; populism; unions
JEL Codes: J68; J58; H24
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Higher perceived probabilities of job loss due to automation (F66) | Increased preferences for higher taxation (H29) |
| Higher perceived probabilities of job loss due to automation (F66) | Greater government handouts (H53) |
| Bad news about job loss probabilities (J63) | Increased self-reported likelihood of joining a union (J50) |
| Higher perceived probabilities of job loss due to automation (F66) | Increased support for redistributive policies (H23) |
| Information treatment (L96) | Higher perceived probabilities of job loss due to automation (F66) |
| Information treatment (L96) | Significant shifts in preferences for redistribution (D30) |