Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP17803
Authors: Ethan Ilzetzki
Abstract: This paper studies how firms adapt to demand shocks when facing capacity constraints. I show that increases in government purchases raise total factor productivity measured in quantity units at the production-line level. Productivity gains are concentrated in plants facing tighter capacity constraints, a phenomenon I call "learning by necessity". Evidence is based on newly digitized data from archival sources on US World War II aircraft production. Shifts in military strategy provide an instrument for aircraft demand. I show that plants adapted to surging demand by improving production methods, outsourcing, and combating absenteeism, primarily when facing tighter capacity constraints.
Keywords: productivity; fiscal policy; capacity constraints; learning by doing
JEL Codes: E22; E62; N62; O33
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Government purchases (H59) | Total Factor Productivity (TFP) (D24) |
| High capacity utilization (D24) | Total Factor Productivity (TFP) (D24) |
| Learning by necessity (D84) | Improved production methods (L23) |
| Learning by necessity (D84) | Outsourcing (L24) |
| Learning by necessity (D84) | Enhanced worker morale (J29) |
| Government purchases (H59) | Productivity growth (O49) |