Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP17739
Authors: Beata Javorcik; Ben Kett; Katherine Stapleton; Layla Okane
Abstract: This paper uses data on the near universe of job adverts posted online in the US to study the impact of the 2018 trade war on US job opportunities. We develop measures of labor market exposure to three key channels of impact from the trade war: import protection for US producers, the higher cost of imported inputs for US producers, and exposure of US exporters to retaliatory tariffs. We find evidence that both tariffs on imported inputs and retaliatory tariffs led to a relative decline in online job postings in affected commuting zones. These effects were stronger for lower skilled postings than for higher skill postings. By contrast, we do not find any evidence of positive impacts of import protection on job openings. We estimate that the tariffs led to a combined effect of 175,000 fewer job postings in 2018, or 0.6 percent of the US total, with two thirds of this aggregate decline due tothe imported input tariffs and one third due to retaliatory tariffs.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: F14; F15; F16
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| retaliatory export tariffs (F14) | job postings (M51) |
| imported input tariffs (F14) | job postings (M51) |
| job postings (M51) | total job postings (J68) |
| imported input tariffs (F14) | lower-skilled job postings (J68) |
| retaliatory export tariffs (F14) | lower-skilled job postings (J68) |