Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP1771
Authors: Howard J. Wall; Gylfi Zoega
Abstract: This paper uses county-level data to estimate the timing and magnitude of shifts in aggregate and regional British Beveridge curves. We find that these shifts coincide with the business cycle rather than with hysteresis effects or with changes in regional mismatch. This implies that the Beveridge curve is a flawed device for separating the effects of structural changes from those of the business cycle.
Keywords: unemployment; vacancies; beveridge curve
JEL Codes: E34; J63
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| shifts in the aggregate Beveridge curve (J69) | business cycle fluctuations (E32) |
| business cycle fluctuations (E32) | movements along the Beveridge curve (J69) |
| unemployment hysteresis (J64) | shifts in the aggregate Beveridge curve (J69) |
| business cycle fluctuations (E32) | shifts in the aggregate Beveridge curve (J69) |
| regional mismatch (R23) | shifts in the aggregate Beveridge curve (J69) |