Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP17607
Authors: Difei Ouyang; Weidi Yuan; Yuan Zi
Abstract: Do trade-induced labor market opportunities affect women's marriage and fertility decisions? Exploiting regional variation in the exposure to the U.S. granting of Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR), we find that more exposed Chinese prefectures experience a relative increase in the fraction of unmarried young women. This relative increase is due to young women delaying their first marriage and more married women choosing to divorce. The share of young women with children, as a result of changed marriage decisions, also experiences a relative decline in more exposed areas. We show that these shifts in family decisions coincide with a trade-induced increase in female workforce participation and reallocation of women relative to men to the service sector, where wages are higher.
Keywords: trade liberalization; gender inequality; family decisions; Chinese economy
JEL Codes: F16; J12; J13; J16
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Trade liberalization (F13) | decline in the fraction of married young women (J12) |
| Higher exposure to PNTR (F69) | decline in the fraction of married young women (J12) |
| Trade liberalization (F13) | delay in childbearing decisions (J13) |
| Increased female workforce participation (J21) | decline in the fraction of married young women (J12) |
| Reallocation of women to higher-paying service sector jobs (J29) | decline in the fraction of married young women (J12) |
| Trade liberalization (F13) | increased female workforce participation (J21) |