Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP17525
Authors: Navid Sabet; Marius Liebald; Guido Friebel
Abstract: AbstractCan terrorism shift the political landscape of a nation? Exploiting quasi-random variation between successful and failed terror attacks across German municipalities, we find that successful attacks lead to significant increases in the vote share for the right-wing, populist Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party in state elections. Successful attacks lead to differential increases in turnout which are mainly captured by the AfD; by contrast, the vote share for the ruling party decreases significantly. Using the German SOEP, a longitudinal panel of individuals, we find that people who reside in municipalities that experience successful attacks identify as more right-wing, prefer the AfD more and the ruling party less, and are more worried about migration and social cohesion. These results hold despite the fact that most attacks are targeted against migrants by right-wing nationalists. The AfD responds to attacks by speaking more about asylum, crime and Islam in its election manifestos at the state level. All other parties shift in the opposite direction.
Keywords: terrorism; populism; turnout; voter realignment; political conflict
JEL Codes: D72; K42; L82
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Successful terror attacks (H84) | Increase in AfD vote share (D79) |
| Successful terror attacks (H84) | Decrease in support for ruling party (D72) |
| Successful terror attacks (H84) | Increase in voter turnout (K16) |
| Increase in voter turnout (K16) | Increase in AfD vote share (D79) |
| Successful terror attacks (H84) | Geographic spillover effects in neighboring municipalities (R12) |
| Successful terror attacks (H84) | Increased identification with AfD (J79) |
| Successful terror attacks (H84) | Increased political participation (D72) |
| Successful terror attacks (H84) | Migration of voters towards AfD (J11) |
| Media coverage of successful attacks (H56) | Influence on voter preferences (D72) |
| Successful terror attacks (H84) | Shift in AfD election manifestos towards crime and immigration (J18) |