Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP17524
Authors: Laura Panza; Marco Lecci; Eik Swee; Giulio Zanella
Abstract: We study how the experience of anti-fascism during Mussolini's dictatorship affects post-war political preferences for right-wing parties. Using newly-digitized historical data, we construct a measure of anti-fascism from the universe of regime opponents recorded in the Casellario Politico Centrale, and an instrumental variable that leverages the random assignment of judges of the Tribunale speciale per la difesa dello Stato and that resolves the simultaneity between the supply of opposition and the demand for repression of opponents. We find that stronger opposition to fascism before and during WWII weakens the support for the post-fascist party in democratic elections by between 0.3 and 1.2 percentage points. Weaker effects are detected for post-1992 conservative right-wing parties not directly tied to the Partito Nazionale Fascista.
Keywords: antifascism; rightwing parties; political preferences; voting behaviour
JEL Codes: D72; N44; P16
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| stronger opposition to fascism before and during World War II (B14) | weaker support for the postfascist party in democratic elections (D72) |
| more severe judges in the years 1926-1934 (K40) | weaker opposition to the fascist regime in the subsequent period (1935-1943) (B24) |
| average judge stringency (K40) | predicted number of opponents per 10,000 adults in a province (C13) |
| predicted number of opponents per 10,000 adults in a province (C13) | vote shares of the Movimento Sociale Italiano (MSI) and Alleanza Nazionale (AN) (D79) |
| stronger opposition to fascism before and during World War II (B14) | lasting impact on contemporary political preferences (D72) |