Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP17457
Authors: Stephen Broadberry; Hanhui Guan
Abstract: We examine regional variation in Chinese GDP per head for five benchmark years from the Song dynasty to the Qing. For the Ming and Qing dynasties, we provide a breakdown of regional GDP per head across seven macro regions, establishing that East Central China was the richest macro region. In addition, we provide data on the Yangzi Delta, the core of East Central China, widely seen as the richest part of China since 1400. Yangzi Delta GDP per head was 64 to 67 per cent higher than in China as a whole for three of the four Ming and Qing benchmarks, and 52 per cent higher during the late Ming. For the Northern Song dynasty, although it is not possible to derive a full regional breakdown, we provide data for Kaifeng Fu, the region containing the capital city. GDP per head in Kaifeng Fu was more than twice the level of China as a whole. Combined with aggregate data for GDP per head, these estimates suggest that China was the leading economy in the world during the Song dynasty and that the Great Divergence began around 1700 as the leading region of China fell decisively behind the leading region of Europe.
Keywords: Great Divergence; China; Regional Variation; GDP per Head
JEL Codes: N13; N33; O10; O47
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Yangzi Delta's geographic and economic factors (R12) | GDP per head (P24) |
| Kaifeng Fu's economic output (N65) | GDP per head (P24) |
| regional economic performance (R11) | broader economic trends (F69) |
| agricultural productivity and urbanization rates (O49) | regional GDP (R11) |