Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP17316
Authors: Sena Coskun; Husnu Dalgic
Abstract: Fertility in the US exhibits an increasingly more procyclical pattern. We argue that women's breadwinner status is behind procyclical and lower fertility: (i) women's relative income in the family has increased over time; and (ii) women are more likely to work in relatively stable and countercyclical industries whereas men tend to work in volatile and procyclical industries. This creates a countercyclical gender income gap as women become breadwinners in recessions, producing an insurance eect of women's income. Our quantitative framework shows that rising breadwinner status of women can explain both the emergence of procyclical fertility and the decline in fertility rate in the second half of the 20th century.
Keywords: Fertility; Procyclical Fertility; Industry Cyclicality; Gender Gap; Quality-Quantity Tradeoff
JEL Codes: E24; E32; J11; J13; J16; J21; J24
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| women's breadwinner status (J12) | fertility rates (J13) |
| increase in women's relative income (J31) | decline in fertility rates (J13) |
| women's income stability during recessions (J31) | procyclical fertility (J13) |
| higher female income stability (J31) | increase in procyclicality in fertility (J13) |
| greater volatility of men's incomes (J31) | countercyclical fertility (J13) |
| increase in women's relative income (J31) | higher opportunity cost of having children (J13) |
| higher opportunity cost of having children (J13) | lower fertility rates (J13) |
| cyclicality of fertility influenced by relative volatility of men's and women's incomes (J19) | observed trends in fertility rates (J11) |