Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP17256
Authors: Sonia Bhalotra; Damian Clarke; Hanna Muhlrad; Mårten Palme
Abstract: IVF allows women to delay birth and pursue careers, but IVF massively increases the riskof twin birth. There is limited evidence of how having twins influences women’s post-birthcareers. We investigate this, leveraging a single embryo transfer (SET) mandate implementedin Sweden in 2003, following which the share of twin births showed a precipitous drop of70%. Linking birth registers to hospitalization and earnings registers, we identify substantialimprovements in maternal and child health and women’s earnings following IVF birth, alongsidean increase in subsequent fertility. We provide the first comprehensive evaluation of SET,relevant given the secular rise in IVF births and growing concerns over twin birth risk. Wecontribute new estimates of the child penalty imposed by twin as opposed to singleton birth,relevant to the secular rise in the global twin birth rate.
Keywords: twins; ivf; single embryo transfer; career costs of children; child penalty; gender wage gap; fertility; maternal health; neonatal health; gender
JEL Codes: J13; I11; I12; I38; J24
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| twin births (J13) | maternal health outcomes (I14) |
| twin births (J13) | length of hospital stays (I11) |
| twin births (J13) | maternal morbidity (I12) |
| twin births (J13) | short-term child penalty (J13) |
| twin births (J13) | long-run child penalty (J13) |
| SET mandate (C87) | twin births (J13) |
| SET mandate (C87) | women's earnings (J31) |