Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP17213
Authors: Rainer Kotschy; David Bloom
Abstract: This paper investigates challenges of aging for long-term care. Our analysis proceeds in three steps. In the first step, we estimate the prospective care demand for 30 developed countries based on projected aging and disabilities among the elderly. In the second step, we outline challenges for care systems with respect to shortages of care workers, increasing skill requirements for care workers, barriers to universal and equitable access to care, and cost containment subject to adequate care quality. In the third step, we identify solutions for these challenges by comparing the care systems of Germany, Israel, Japan, the Netherlands, and South Korea.
Keywords: long-term care insurance; population aging; care demand; ADL; IADL
JEL Codes: J11; I18; I38; H51; H75
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Aging population (J11) | Increased demand for long-term care (J26) |
| Health status of the elderly (I14) | Demand for care (I11) |
| Increased demand for long-term care (J26) | Challenges in care systems (I11) |
| Design of eligibility criteria for care access (I11) | Ability of systems to meet demand (C69) |
| Improving working conditions in care sector (J89) | Mitigation of challenges (H84) |
| Enhancing training for care workers (J24) | Mitigation of challenges (H84) |