Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP17176
Authors: Mazhar Waseem; Timotej Cejka
Abstract: Using Ramadan fasting as a natural experiment, we estimate the long-run impacts of in-utero health and nutrition shocks on adult outcomes. We exploit administrative tax return data comprising the universe of income tax returns filed in Pakistan during 2007–2009. The data allow us to link in-utero Ramadan exposure of individuals with their later life labor market outcomes. We find a robust negative effect of Ramadan exposure on earnings (a lower-bound estimate of around 2–3 percent). The exposed individuals are less likely to be in high-skilled occupations and less likely to be in the top of the income distribution. Using nationally representative survey data we show that our results are unlikely to be driven by selective timing of conception.
Keywords: nutrition shock; human capital; labor market outcomes
JEL Codes: I15; J13; J24
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| In-utero health and nutrition shocks (I12) | adult labor market outcomes (J49) |
| Ramadan exposure (Y60) | earnings (J31) |
| Ramadan exposure (Y60) | likelihood of being employed in high-skilled occupations (J24) |
| Ramadan exposure (Y60) | likelihood of being employed in low-skilled sectors (F66) |
| Exposure intensity (C91) | average effect size of Ramadan exposure on earnings (J31) |
| In-utero Ramadan exposure (J13) | annual output loss in Pakistan (Q54) |