Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP17125
Authors: Andrea Berlanda; Elena Esposito; Matteo Cervellati; Dominic Rohner; Uwe Sunde
Abstract: This paper investigates the consequences of the successful expansion of anti-retroviral therapy (ART) to combat the HIV/AIDS pandemic on social violence and conflict in Africa. Identification is based on exogenous variation in the scope for treatment and global variation in drug prices. We find that the ART expansion significantly reduced the number of violent events in African countries and sub-national regions. The effect is not explained by general improvements in economic prosperity, but related to health improvements, greater approval of government policy, and increased trust in political institutions. Counterfactual simulations illustrate the quantitative relevance of the results.
Keywords: HIV; Conflict; Social Violence; ART Expansion; Trust; Africa; Health Intervention; Domestic Violence
JEL Codes: C36; D47; I15; O10
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| ART expansion (Y60) | reduction in violent events (H56) |
| ART expansion (Y60) | increase in individual trust in institutions (O43) |
| ART expansion (Y60) | increase in individual approval of government policies (H11) |
| increase in individual trust in institutions (O43) | reduction in violent events (H56) |
| increase in individual approval of government policies (H11) | reduction in violent events (H56) |
| health improvements (I14) | reduction in violent events (H56) |