Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP17074
Authors: Gregory Clark; Neil Cummins
Abstract: Using a new database of 1.7 million marriage records for England 1837-2021 we estimate assortment by occupational status in marriage, and the intergenerational correlation of occupational status. We find the underlying correlations of status groom-bride, and father-son, are remarkably high: 0.8 and 0.9 respectively. These correlations are unchanged 1837-2021. There is evidence this strong matching extends back to at least 1754. Even before formal education and occupations for women, grooms and brides matched tightly on educational and occupational abilities. We show further that women contributed as much as men to important child outcomes. This implies strong marital sorting substantially increased the variance of social abilities in England. Pre-industrial marital systems typically involved much less marital sorting. Thus the development of assortative marriage may play a role in the location and timing of the Industrial Revolution, through its effect on the supply of those with upper-tail abilities.
Keywords: Marital Sorting; European Marriage Pattern; Intergenerational Mobility; Upper-Tail Human Capital
JEL Codes: N33; J12; J24
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| higher marital assortment (J12) | increased social inequality (I14) |
| higher marital assortment (J12) | lower rates of social mobility (J62) |
| assortative mating (C78) | increased variance of social abilities (C21) |
| changes in marital patterns (J12) | affect population distribution of social abilities (D39) |
| assortative marriage (J12) | role in timing and location of the Industrial Revolution (N93) |
| lack of significant changes in marital assortment (J12) | supports persistence of assortative mating (J12) |