Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP17047
Authors: Benjamin Marx; Vincent Pons; Vincent Rollet
Abstract: In most national elections, voters face a key choice between continuity and change. Electoral turnovers occur when the incumbent candidate or party fails to win reelection. To understand how turnovers affect national outcomes, we study all presidential and parliamentary elections held globally between 1946 and 2018. We document the prevalence of turnovers over time and estimate their effects on economic performance, human development, and the quality of democracy. Using a close-elections regression discontinuity design across countries, we show that turnovers improve several measures of country performance. To explain these positive effects, we explore how electoral turnovers affect leader characteristics, shape policy decisions, reduce perceived corruption, and foster accountability.
Keywords: Elections; Turnovers; Democracy; Institutions
JEL Codes: D72; O43; P16
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Electoral Turnovers (K16) | Economic Performance (P17) |
| Electoral Turnovers (K16) | General Index of Country Performance (O57) |
| Electoral Turnovers (K16) | Trade Intensity (F14) |
| Electoral Turnovers (K16) | Human Development (O15) |
| Electoral Turnovers (K16) | Control of Corruption (H57) |
| Electoral Turnovers (K16) | Public Sector Corruption (H57) |
| Electoral Turnovers (K16) | Governance (G38) |
| Electoral Turnovers (K16) | Performance Over Time (C41) |