Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP1703
Authors: Lorenzo Giorgianni; Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti
Abstract: This paper investigates the behaviour of Korean trade flows during the last three decades, and presents estimates of aggregate export and import equations. In particular, it considers different choices for scale and price variables, and assesses the relative merits of these alternative specifications in terms of stability and forecasting performance. It also provides an assessment of the drastic change in the geographical destination of Korean exports during the 1990s.
Keywords: Korea; Exports; Imports; Trade Elasticities; Direction of Exports
JEL Codes: F11; F14; F31; F32
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| real consumption (D11) | aggregate imports (E10) |
| real investment expenditure (E22) | aggregate imports (E10) |
| relative prices (P22) | import demand (J23) |
| foreign income (F21) | demand for Korean exports (F14) |
| relative export prices (F14) | export demand (F10) |
| increased penetration of other Asian countries' exports (F69) | decline in the share of Korean exports to industrial countries (F14) |
| high growth in developing Asian economies (O53) | shift in the direction of Korean exports (F14) |
| price competitiveness of Korean exports (F14) | shift in the direction of Korean exports (F14) |