Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP17007
Authors: Vincenzo Galasso; Vincent Pons; Paola Profeta; Michael Becher; Sylvain Brouard; Martial Foucault
Abstract: Millions of people refuse COVID-19 vaccination. Using original data from two surveys in nine OECD countries, we analyze the determinants of anti-vax intentions in December 2020 and show that half of the anti-vax individuals were vaccinated by summer 2021. Vaccinations were more likely among individuals aged 50+, exposed to COVID-19, compliant with public restrictions, more informed on traditional media, trusting scientists, and less concerned about vaccines’ side effects. We run a survey experiment with informational messages. In EU countries, a message about protecting health largely increases vaccinations, even among anti-vax individuals. In the U.K. and U.S., a message about protecting the economy generates similar effects. Our findings suggest that informational campaigns should adopt adequate narratives and address concerns about vaccines’ side effects.
Keywords: COVID-19; vaccination; randomized experiment; information transmission
JEL Codes: I12; D83
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Higher trust in scientists (C92) | Vaccination behavior (C92) |
| Older individuals (J14) | Vaccination behavior (C92) |
| Lower confidence in vaccine safety (I19) | Vaccination likelihood (C46) |
| Altruistic messages (D64) | Reduction in antivax stance (I19) |
| Health protection message (D18) | Vaccination intentions (I18) |
| Economic benefits message (F69) | Vaccination intentions (I18) |
| Health protection message (D18) | Actual vaccination behavior (I12) |