Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP16986
Authors: Chiara Latour; Franco Peracchi; Giancarlo Spagnolo
Abstract: Using the synthetic control method, we construct counterfactuals for what would have happened if Sweden had imposed a lockdown during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic. We consider eight different indicators, including a novel one that we construct by adjusting recorded daily COVID-19 deaths to account for weakly excess mortality. Correcting for data problems and re-optimizing the synthetic control for each indicator, we find that a lockdown would have had sizable effects within one week. The much longer delay estimated by two previous studies focusing on the number of positives cases is mainly driven by the extremely low testing frequency that prevailed in Sweden in the first months of the epidemic. This result appears relevant for choosing the timing of future lockdowns and highlights the importance of looking at several indicators to derive robust conclusions. We also find that our novel indicator is effective in correcting errors in the COVID-19 deaths series and that the quantitative effects of the lockdown are stronger than previously estimated.
Keywords: COVID-19; Indicators; Excess Deaths; COVID-19 Deaths; Containment Policies; Lockdown; Synthetic Control Method; Sweden
JEL Codes: C4; F6; I18
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Low testing frequency (C22) | Longer delays in effects of lockdown (C41) |
| Novel indicator (C43) | More accurate measure of epidemic's impact (C80) |
| Lockdown in Sweden (P37) | Effects within one week (I12) |
| Lockdown in Sweden (P37) | 61% reduction in cumulative COVID-19 infections (I14) |
| Lockdown in Sweden (P37) | 40% reduction in cumulative deaths (C41) |