Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP16921
Authors: Jacopo Ponticelli; Meng Miao
Abstract: We study the historical roots of anti-government protests using the experience of China. We document that counties with higher incidence of peasant uprisings against local government officials during the Qing dynasty period (1644-1912) have a higher incidence of anti-government protests in present-day China. To generate plausibly exogenous variation in the incidence of past protests, we exploit differences in the visibility and magnitude of solar eclipses, considered a negative divine signal on the ruler's legitimacy in the Confucian tradition. Differences in historical memories of past protests affect communities' reaction to current grievances against local governments, such as increases in air pollution.
Keywords: social protests; persistence; qing dynasty; confucianism
JEL Codes: D74; O53; N3
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| past rebellions (D74) | current protests targeting local government officials (H70) |
| diffusion of Confucianism (Z12) | effect of past rebellions on current protests (D74) |
| lower-education protestors (I24) | incidence of current protests (D74) |
| solar eclipses (Q49) | incidence of protests during the Qing dynasty (N40) |
| solar eclipses (Q49) | current protests (D74) |
| incidence of past rebellions (N41) | current protests (D74) |