Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP16906
Authors: Martin Gonzalezeiras; Dirk Niepelt
Abstract: We investigate how politico-economic factors shaped government responses to the spread of COVID-19. Our simple framework uses epidemiological, economic and politico-economic arguments. Confronting the theory with US state level data we find strong evidence for partisanship even when we control for fundamentals including the electorate's political views. Moreover, we detect an important role for the proximity of elections which we interpret as indicative of career concerns. Finally, we find suggestive evidence for complementarities between voluntary activity reductions and government imposed restrictions.
Keywords: COVID-19; Lockdown; Politics
JEL Codes: I18
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| partisanship (D72) | severity and duration of lockdowns (C41) |
| proximity of elections (K16) | stricter government-imposed restrictions (H12) |
| partisanship (D72) | policies implemented (D78) |