Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP16821
Authors: Gordon Dahl; Runjing Lu; William Mullins
Abstract: Changes in political leadership drive sharp changes in public policy and partisan beliefs about the future. We exploit the surprise 2016 election of Trump to identify the effects of a shift in political power on one of the most consequential household decisions: whether to have a child. Republican-leaning counties experience a sharp and persistent increase in fertility relative to Democratic counties, a shift amounting to 1.2 to 2.2% of the national fertility rate. In addition, Hispanics see fertility fall relative to non-Hispanics, especially compared to rural or evangelical whites.
Keywords: fertility; partisanship; elections
JEL Codes: J13; D72
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| 2016 presidential election (K16) | fertility rates (J13) |
| Republican-leaning counties (K16) | fertility rates (J13) |
| Trump election (K16) | fertility difference between Republican and Democratic counties (J19) |
| Hispanic mothers (J13) | fertility rates relative to non-Hispanics (J19) |
| politically polarized counties (D72) | fertility rate effects (J13) |