Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP16756
Authors: Rudolf Winter-Ebmer; Uwe Sunde; Mario Lackner
Abstract: The unprecedented consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic have raised concerns about intensified social unrest, but evidence for such a link and the underlying channels is still lacking. We use a unique combination of nationally representative survey data, event data on social unrest, and data on Covid-19 fatalities and unemployment at a weekly resolution to investigate the forces behind social unrest in the context of the strains on public health and the economy due to the pandemic in the USA. The results show that pandemic-related unemployment and Covid-19 fatalities intensified negative emotional stress and led to a deterioration of economic confidence among individuals. The prevalence of negative emotional stress, particularly in economically strained and politically polarized environments, was, in turn, associated with intensified social unrest as measured by political protests. No such link is found for economic perceptions.
Keywords: economic shocks; COVID-19; civil unrest; political polarization
JEL Codes: No JEL codes provided
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| pandemic-related unemployment (J65) | negative emotional stress (D91) |
| COVID-19 fatalities (I12) | negative emotional stress (D91) |
| negative emotional stress (D91) | social unrest (O17) |
| COVID-19 deaths (I12) | negative emotional stress (D91) |
| politically polarized and economically strained environments (P19) | increased social unrest (P39) |