Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP16743
Authors: alan de bromhead; ronan lyons
Abstract: How does housing policy influence the distribution of population? We examine the impact of the world’s first large-scale rural public housing scheme on the long-term dynamics of rural population, specifically the case of Ireland’s Labourers Acts. We link detailed data on the location of over 45,000 heavily subsidized cottages for agricultural laborers built 1883-1915 in over 200 districts to decennial Censuses between 1841 and 2002. We examine how the density of this social housing, which effectively halved rents for landless laborers, affected subsequent population change and find significant persistence in the effect of this treatment on the population. These findings are from specifications that include other factors plausibly related to future population growth, including initial housing stock, land values and population density, as well as distance to urban centres. A causal interpretation is supported by an assessment of pre-trends, by no effect of cottages authorized but not built and by an IV approach that exploits a 1906 limit on legal costs. Our findings suggest that deep housing policy interventions can have long-lasting effects on population distribution.
Keywords: ireland; labourers acts; population growth; social housing; migration
JEL Codes: n34; n94; o18; r23; r38
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Cottages authorized but not built (R38) | Population growth (J11) |
| Change in legal cost limits in 1906 (K41) | Number of cottages built (N60) |
| Number of cottages built (N60) | Population distribution (D39) |
| Number of cottages built per capita by 1911 (N62) | Population growth (J11) |
| Cottages built (N60) | Population growth in southern Ireland (J11) |
| Cottages built (N60) | Population growth in northern Ireland (J11) |