Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP16742
Authors: Dani Rodrik
Abstract: In the public imagination globalization’s adverse effects have loomed large, contributing significantly to the backlash against the political mainstream and the rise of far-right populism. The literature on trade and inequality is in fact exceptionally rich, with important theoretical insights as well as extensive empirical findings that sheds light on this recent experience. Some of the key results of this literature, discussed here, are as follows: Redistribution is the flip side of the gains from trade, and it becomes larger relative to net gains from trade in the advanced stages of globalization. Compensation is difficult for both economic and political reasons. International trade often differs from other market exchanges, raising fairness concerns in ways that domestic markets do not. The economic benefits of deep integration are generally ambiguous. Dynamic or growth gains from trade are uncertain.
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Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| trade exposure (F14) | changes in income distribution (D31) |
| trade liberalization (F13) | redistribution (H23) |
| gains from trade (F11) | redistribution (H23) |
| trade liberalization (F13) | exacerbation of inequality (I24) |
| decrease in trade barriers (F19) | increase in redistributive component of trade gains (F12) |
| inadequate compensation for trade losers (F16) | imperfect redistributive measures (H23) |