Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP16737
Authors: Ronny Razin; Gilat Levy
Abstract: In this paper we explore the effect of short memories on political outcomes in a model in which politics is viewed as a collective learning process . We analyse a dynamic model in which voters use past observations to learn about the optimal policy and political parties are self-interested, with polarised ideal policies. Voters balance party loyalty with a desire to vote for the party whose policy is based on a better interpretation of past observations. We show that short-term memory leads to political cycles of polarisation and convergence. Historical periods of convergence lead parties to polarise, whereas periods of polarisation imply convergence of platforms. Our framework also allows us to model the strategic use of biased histories and narratives in political competition, such as the use of nostalgia.
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Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| short-term memory (Y60) | political outcomes (D72) |
| historical periods of convergence (B15) | polarization among parties (D72) |
| periods of polarization (F52) | convergence of platforms (O47) |
| short-term memory (Y60) | cycles of polarization and convergence (E32) |
| voters' limited memory of past events (D72) | dynamics of consensus and polarization (D70) |
| crises and changes in technology (O33) | exacerbate or ameliorate cycles (E32) |