Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP16708
Authors: Matthew Delventhal; Jess Fernández-Villaverde; Nezih Guner
Abstract: The demographic transition --the move from a high fertility/high mortality regime into a low fertility/low mortality regime-- is one of the most fundamental transformations that countries undertake. To study demographic transitions across time and space, we compile a data set of birth and death rates for 186 countries spanning more than 250 years. We document that (i) a demographic transition has been completed or is ongoing in nearly every country; (ii) the speed of transition has increased over time; and (iii) having more neighbors that have started the transition is associated with a higher probability of a country beginning its own transition. To account for these observations, we build a quantitative model in which parents choose child quantity and educational quality. Countries differ in geographic location, and improved production and medical technologies diffuse outward from Great Britain. Our framework replicates well the timing and increasing speed of transitions. It also produces a correlation between the speeds of fertility transition and increases in schooling similar to the one in the data.
Keywords: demographic transition; skill-biased technological change; diffusion
JEL Codes: J13; N3; O11; O33; O40
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Neighbors' demographic transition (J11) | Country's own demographic transition (J11) |
| Crude Birth Rates (CBR) transitions (J11) | Crude Death Rates (CDR) transitions (J11) |
| GDP per capita (O49) | Timing of demographic transition (J11) |