Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP16681
Authors: Pragyan Deb; Davide Furceri; Daniel Jimenez; Siddharth Kothari; Jonathan D. Ostry; Nour Tawk
Abstract: This paper examines empirically the determinants of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts and their effects on health outcomes. We assemble a comprehensive and novel cross-country database at a daily frequency on vaccinations and various health outcomes (new COVID-19 cases, fatalities, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions) for the period December 16, 2020–June 20, 2021. Using this data, we find that: (i) early vaccine procurement, domestic production of vaccines, the severity of the pandemic, a country’s health infrastructure, and vaccine acceptance are significant determinants of the speed of vaccination rollouts; (ii) vaccine deployment significantly reduces new COVID-19 infections, Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admissions, and fatalities, and is more effective when coupled with stringent containment measures, or when a country is experiencing a large outbreak; and (iii) COVID-19 cases in neighboring countries can lead to an increase in a country’s domestic caseload, and hamper efforts in taming its own local outbreak.
Keywords: COVID-19; pandemics; vaccinations; containment measures
JEL Codes: C31; C33; E65; O50; F4
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| vaccine deployment (H56) | new covid19 infections (I12) |
| vaccine deployment (H56) | ICU admissions (I12) |
| vaccine deployment (H56) | fatalities (J17) |
| second dose of the vaccine (Y60) | daily covid19 cases (Y10) |
| vaccines + stringent containment measures (H12) | effectiveness of vaccines (I12) |
| spillover effects of covid19 cases in neighboring countries (F65) | domestic caseloads (J12) |
| domestic caseloads (J12) | negative health impact (I14) |