Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP16408
Authors: Nancy Qian; Andrei Markevich; Natalya Naumenko
Abstract: This study constructs a large new dataset to investigate whether state policy led to ethnic Ukrainians experiencing higher mortality during the 1932-33 Soviet Great Famine. All else equal, famine (excess) mortality rates were positively associated with ethnic Ukrainian population share across provinces, as well as across districts within provinces. Ukrainian ethnicity, rather than the administrative boundaries of the Ukrainian republic, mattered for famine mortality. These and many additional results provide strong evidence that higher Ukrainian famine mortality was an outcome of policy, and suggestive evidence on the political-economic drivers of repression. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that bias against Ukrainians explains up to 77% of famine deaths in the three republics of Russia, Ukraine and Belarus and up to 92% in Ukraine.
Keywords: repression; mass killings; ethnic conflict
JEL Codes: N4; P2
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| ethnic Ukrainian population share (J15) | famine mortality (J17) |
| famine year dummy * ethnic Ukrainian population share (N52) | famine mortality (J17) |
| famine mortality (J17) | Ukrainian population share in non-famine years (J11) |
| famine mortality (J17) | Ukrainian population share in previous famines (N54) |
| state policy (H70) | higher Ukrainian mortality (I12) |