Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP16382
Authors: Raquel Fernández; Sahar Parsa
Abstract: Attitudes towards same-sex relationships in the US have changed radically over a relatively short period of time. After remaining fairly constant for over two decades, opinions became more favorable starting in 1992 - a presidential election year in which the Democratic and Republican parties took opposing stands over the status of gay people in society. What roles did political parties and their leaders play in this process of cultural change? Using a variety of techniques including machine learning, we show that the partisan opinion gap emerged substantially prior to 1992 -- in the mid 1980s -- and did not increase as a result of the political debates in 1992-'93. Furthermore, we identify people with a college-and-above education as the potential "leaders" of the process of partisan divergence.
Keywords: cultural change; lgbtq attitudes; political parties; public opinion; heterogeneous effects
JEL Codes: Z1; P16; Z13
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| political party identification (D72) | attitudes towards same-sex relationships (J12) |
| college education (I23) | partisan divergence (D72) |
| approval of same-sex relationships (K38) | partisan gap (D72) |
| college education (I23) | attitudes towards same-sex relationships (J12) |
| political debates in 1992-93 (E65) | partisan opinion gap (D72) |