Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP16372
Authors: Mehdi Benatiya Andaloussi; Antonio Spilimbergo
Abstract: Vaccination is proceeding along national lines. While over 50 percent of the population in many advanced countries has been vaccinated, the vaccination rate in the rest of the world is lagging and substantial coverage is expected only in few months. This paper presents a thought experiment of distributing vaccines to the individuals at risks in every country after a substantial share of the population in surplus countries is vaccinated. Under reasonable assumptions, 400 to 800 thousand lives could be saved between June and December 2021, through the early sharing of vaccine surpluses across countries.
Keywords: vaccines; equitable distribution
JEL Codes: No JEL codes provided
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Vaccine sharing with high-risk populations globally after a significant portion of surplus countries' populations are vaccinated (I14) | Reduction in mortality rates (I14) |
| Timing of vaccine sharing (O36) | Number of lives saved (J17) |
| Dynamics of the pandemic (C69) | Effectiveness of vaccine sharing strategy (O36) |
| Size of high-risk populations (I14) | Effectiveness of vaccine sharing strategy (O36) |
| Infection fatality ratios (IFRs) (I12) | Effectiveness of vaccine sharing strategy (O36) |
| Vaccination of high-risk individuals (G52) | Trivial risk of death for high-risk individuals (J17) |