Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP16358
Authors: Pauline Rossi; Mathilde Godard
Abstract: The old-age security motive for fertility postulates that people's needs for old-age support raise the demand for children. We exploit the extension of social pensions in Namibia during the nineties to provide a quasi-experimental quantification of this widespread idea. The reform eliminated inequalities in pension coverage and benefits across regions and ethnic groups. Combining differences in pre-reform pensions and differences in exposure across cohorts, we show that pensions substantially reduce fertility, especially in late reproductive life. The results suggest that improving social protection for the elderly could go a long way in fostering fertility decline in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Keywords: fertility; old-age pensions; social security; africa; difference-in-differences
JEL Codes: D15; H55; I38; J13; O15; O55
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| extension of social pensions in Namibia (H55) | fertility rates (J13) |
| extension of social pensions in Namibia (H55) | completed fertility for women in regions with high initial needs for old-age support (J13) |
| pensions (H55) | decision to stop having children (J13) |
| pensions (H55) | reproductive behaviors (J13) |
| pensions (H55) | fertility rates in other sub-Saharan African countries (O55) |
| pensions (H55) | old-age security motive (H55) |
| pensions (H55) | income effects (H31) |