Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP16323
Authors: Orkun Saka; Barry Eichengreen; Cevat Aksoy
Abstract: We ask whether epidemic exposure leads to a shift in financial technology usage and who participates in this shift. We exploit a dataset combining Gallup World Polls and Global Findex surveys for some 250,000 individuals in 140 countries, merging them with information on the incidence of epidemics and local 3G internet infrastructure. Epidemic exposure is associated with an increase in remote-access (online/mobile) banking and substitution from bank branch-based to ATM activity. The temporary nature of the effects we identify is more consistent with a demand channel rather than that of supply with high initial fixed costs. Exploring heterogeneity using a machine-learning driven approach, we find that young, high-income earners in full-time employment have the greatest tendency to shift to online/mobile transactions in response to epidemics. Baseline effects are larger for individuals with better ex ante 3G signal coverage, highlighting the role of the digital divide in adaption to new technologies necessitated by adverse external shocks.
Keywords: epidemics; fintech; banking
JEL Codes: G20; G59; I10
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Epidemic exposure (I12) | Online/mobile banking transactions (G21) |
| Epidemic exposure (I12) | Mobile transactions using bank accounts (G21) |
| Epidemic exposure (I12) | ATM withdrawals (G21) |
| Epidemic exposure (I12) | In-branch transactions (G21) |
| Better pre-existing 3G internet coverage (L96) | Online banking adaptation (G21) |
| Young, high-income earners in full-time employment (J39) | Online/mobile transactions (L81) |