Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP16292
Authors: Anne Brockmeyer; Clément Joubert; Quytoan Do; Kartika Bhatia; Mohamed Abdeljelil
Abstract: Global terrorist organizations attract radicalized individuals across borders and constitute a threat for both sending and receiving countries. We use unique personnel records from the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (Daesh) to show that unemployment in sending countries is associated with the number of transnational terrorist recruits from these countries. The relationship is spatially heterogeneous, which is most plausibly attributable to travel costs. We argue that poor labor market opportunities generally push more individuals to join terrorist organizations, but at the same time limit their ability to do so when longer travel distances imply higher migration costs.
Keywords: transnational terrorism; violent extremism; unemployment; migration costs
JEL Codes: F51; E24; E26; Z12
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Higher unemployment rates in countries closer to Syria (F66) | Increased recruitment into Daesh (H56) |
| 1 percentage point reduction in unemployment (J68) | Approximately 1,200 fewer recruits from these countries (F59) |
| Higher unemployment rates in countries further than 2,500 miles from Syria (F66) | Decreased recruitment into Daesh (H56) |
| Migration costs (F22) | Moderating factor in the relationship between unemployment and recruitment (J60) |