Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP16247
Authors: Jeremy Greenwood; Nezih Guner; Ricardo Marto
Abstract: The 20th century beheld a dramatic transformation of the family. Some Kuznets style facts regarding structural change in the family are presented. Over the course of the 20th century in the United States fertility declined, educational attainment waxed, housework fell, leisure increased, jobs shifted from blue to white collar, and marriage waned. These trends are also observed in the cross-country data. A model is developed, and then calibrated, to address the trends in the US data. The calibration procedure is closely connected to the underlying economic logic. Three drivers of the great transition are considered: neutral technological progress, skilled-biased technological change, and drops in the price of labor-saving household durables.
Keywords: Fertility; Housework; Kuznets; Leisure; Market Work; Marriage; Neutral Technological Progress; Price of Labor-Saving Household Durables; Skilled-Biased Technological Change; White Collar Jobs
JEL Codes: D10; E13; J10; O10
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Neutral technological progress and skilled-biased technological change (O49) | decline in fertility (J13) |
| Neutral technological progress and skilled-biased technological change (O49) | rise in educational attainment (I24) |
| Neutral technological progress and skilled-biased technological change (O49) | shift from many uneducated children to fewer educated ones (I21) |
| Process innovation in the production of labor-saving household durables (L68) | decline in housework (D13) |
| Process innovation in the production of labor-saving household durables (L68) | fall in marriage rates (J12) |
| Technological progress (O49) | changes in household labor (D13) |
| changes in household labor (D13) | shifts in marriage rates (J12) |
| Economic growth (O49) | structural changes in family dynamics (J12) |