Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP16227
Authors: Lin Ma; Gil Shapira; Damien De Walque; Quytoan Do; Jed Friedman; Andrei A. Levchenko
Abstract: In lower-income countries, the economic contractions that accompany lockdowns tocontain the spread of COVID-19 can increase child mortality, counteracting the mortality reductions achieved by the lockdown. To formalize and quantify this effect, we build a macro-susceptible-infected-recovered model that features heterogeneous agents and a country-group-specific relationship between economic downturns and child mortality, and calibrate it to data for 85 countries across all income levels. We find that in low-income countries, a lockdown can potentially lead to 1.76 children’s lives lost due to the economic contraction per COVID-19 fatality averted. The ratio stands at 0.59 and 0.06 in lower-middle and upper-middle income countries, respectively. As a result, in some countries lockdowns actually can produce net increases in mortality. The optimal lockdowns are shorter and milder in poorer countries than in rich ones, and never produce a net mortality increase.
Keywords: COVID-19; Child Mortality; Lockdown; SIR Macro
JEL Codes: I18; I15
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Lockdowns (H76) | Child Mortality (J13) |
| Economic Contraction (E32) | Child Mortality (J13) |
| Lockdowns (H76) | Economic Contraction (E32) |
| Income Level (D31) | Impact of Economic Contraction on Child Mortality (J13) |
| Economic Conditions (E66) | Effectiveness of Lockdown Policies (F68) |