Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP16140
Authors: Nicholas Crafts
Abstract: In 1930 Keynes opined that by 2030 people would work only 15 hours per week. As such, this prediction will not be realised. However, expected lifetime hours of leisure and non-market work in the UK rose by 60 per cent between 1931 and 2011, considerably more than Keynes would have expected. This reflects increases in life expectancy at older ages and much longer expected periods of retirement. Leisure in retirement contributes to high life satisfaction for the elderly but building up savings to pay for it is a barrier to working only 15 hours per week.
Keywords: leisure; life expectancy; retirement; work
JEL Codes: J22; J26; N34
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Increase in life expectancy since the 1960s (J17) | Longer expected periods of retirement (J26) |
| Longer expected periods of retirement (J26) | Higher expected lifetime hours of leisure (D15) |
| Increase in life expectancy since the 1960s (J17) | Higher expected lifetime hours of leisure and non-market work (J29) |
| Reduction in market work hours (J29) | Increase in expected leisure time (J29) |
| Increase in duration of retirement (J26) | Larger accumulation of leisure hours (J22) |
| Prediction of working only 15 hours per week by 2030 (J29) | Actual work hours fell by about one-third (J22) |