Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP16122
Authors: Davide Furceri; Prakash Loungani; Jonathan D. Ostry; Pietro Pizzuto
Abstract: This paper provides evidence on the impact of major epidemics from the past two decades on income distribution. The pandemics in our sample, even though much smaller in scale than COVID-19, have led to increases in the Gini coefficient, raised the income share of higher-income deciles, and lowered the employment-to-population ratio for those with basic education compared to those with higher education. We provide some evidence that the distributional consequences from the current pandemic may be larger than those flowing from the historical pandemics in our sample, and larger than those following typical recessions and financial crises.
Keywords: COVID-19; Pandemics; Inequality
JEL Codes: E52; E58; D43; L11
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Fiscal policy responses (E62) | mitigate impacts of pandemics on inequality (I14) |
| Pandemics (H84) | Gini coefficient (D31) |
| Pandemics (H84) | income share of higher-income deciles (D33) |
| Pandemics (H84) | employment-to-population ratio for individuals with basic education (J24) |
| Gini coefficient (D31) | income share of top two deciles (D33) |
| Gini coefficient (D31) | income share of bottom two deciles (E25) |
| Pandemics (H84) | worsening inequality for lower-skilled workers (F66) |
| COVID-19 (I15) | distributional consequences larger than historical pandemics (D39) |