Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP16102
Authors: Thiemo Fetzer; Pedro Souza; Oliver Vanden Eynde; Austin L. Wright
Abstract: We study the impact of battlefield casualties and media coverage on public demand for war termination. Based on survey evidence from eight troop-sending NATO countries in the Afghanistan war, we find that fatalities increase public demand for withdrawal. Evidence from a survey experiment replicates these results. We leverage a news pressure design and find that major sporting matches occurring around the time of battlefield casualties (i) drive down subsequent press coverage, and (ii) significantly weaken the effect of casualties on support for war termination. These results highlight the important role that the media play in shaping public support for foreign military interventions.
Keywords: conflict; public opinion; political economy; afghanistan; nato
JEL Codes: D72; D74; F51; F52; H56
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| battlefield casualties (H56) | media coverage (L82) |
| battlefield casualties (H56) | public demand for withdrawal (E41) |
| media coverage (L82) | public demand for withdrawal (E41) |
| non-combat troop deaths (H56) | public demand for withdrawal (E41) |
| casualties tied to coalition partners (F51) | public demand for withdrawal (E41) |