Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP16018
Authors: Kym Anderson; Glyn Wittwer
Abstract: This paper provides an empirical case study of impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on global beverage markets, particularly the wine sector. Both international trade and domestic sales have been adversely affected by temporary shifts away from on-premise sales by social distancing measures and self-isolation that led to closure of restaurants, bars and clubs plus declines in international travel and tourism. Partly offsetting this has been a boost to off-premise and direct e-commerce sales. We first estimate those impacts in 2020 and their expected partial recovery in 2021 using a new model of global beverage markets. A further recent disruption to global wine trade has been the imposition by China in late 2020 of prohibitive tariffs on its imports of bottled wine from Australia. Its diversionary and trade-reducing effects are compared with those due to COVID-19.
Keywords: beverage market; modeling; pandemic; responses by consumers; prohibitive tariffs; trade diversion
JEL Codes: C63; D12; F14; F17; Q17
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| COVID-19 (I15) | wine sales (L66) |
| COVID-19 (I15) | consumption patterns (D10) |
| COVID-19 (I15) | off-premise sales (L81) |
| China's tariffs (F19) | global wine trade (F19) |