Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP16017
Authors: Antonio Ciccone
Abstract: According to Gibrat's law for cities, population shocks have permanent effects on city size. I examine this implication by analyzing the persistence of observed population shocks: German military casualties in WWI by municipality of birth. I find a strong negative effect of military casualties on the male population of municipalities just after WWI. This effect persists to 1933 and, outside of the most agricultural municipalities, beyond. The effect on female population and the number of households is similar to the effect on male population by 1950, when women in the generation that fought WWI started reaching their life expectancy.
Keywords: Gibrat's Law; World War I; Population Dynamics
JEL Codes: N3
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| male population (J11) | population dynamics (J11) |
| World War I military casualties (H56) | female population (J21) |
| World War I military casualties (H56) | number of households (R20) |
| male population (J11) | persistence of population shocks (J11) |
| World War I military casualties (H56) | male population (J11) |