Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP16014
Authors: Alan De Bromhead; Alan Fernihough; Markus Lampe; Kevin O'Rourke
Abstract: This paper introduces a new dataset of commodity-specific, bilateral import data for four large Asian economies in the interwar period: China, the Dutch East Indies, India, and Japan. It uses these data to describe the interwar trade collapses in the economies concerned. These resembled the post-2008 Great Trade Collapse in some respects but not in others: they occurred along the intensive margin, imports of cars were particularly badly affected, and imports of durable goods fell by more than those of non-durables, except in China and India which were rapidly industrializing. On the other hand the import declines were geographically imbalanced, while prices were more important than quantities in driving the overall collapse.
Keywords: trade collapses; interwar economy; protection
JEL Codes: N75; F14
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Trade policies (F13) | Trade collapses in Asian economies (F69) |
| Price changes (P22) | Trade collapses in Asian economies (F69) |
| Quantity changes (C69) | Trade collapses in Asian economies (F69) |
| Falling prices of primary commodities (Q02) | Trade collapses in Asian economies (F69) |
| Trade relationships maintained but reduced volumes (F10) | Trade collapses in Asian economies (F69) |