Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP15990
Authors: Ahmed Mobarak; Iffath Sharif; Maheshwor Shrestha
Abstract: We follow 3,512 (of 1.4 million) applicants to a government lottery that randomly allocated visas to Bangladeshis for low-skilled, temporary labor contracts in Malaysia. Most lottery winners migrate, and their remittance substantially raises their family’s standard of living in Bangladesh. The migrant’s absence pauses demographic changes (marriage, childbirth, household formation), and shifts decision-making power towards females. Migration removes enterprising individuals, lowering household entrepreneurship, but does not crowd out other family members’ labor supply. One group of applicants were offered deferred migration that never materialized. Improved migration prospects induce pre-migration investments in skills that generate no returns in the domestic market.
Keywords: government-intermediated international migration
JEL Codes: F22; O12; O15
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Absence of migrants (F22) | Demographic changes within households (J12) |
| Absence of migrants (F22) | Decrease in household labor income (H31) |
| Decrease in household labor income (H31) | Increase in remittance income (F24) |
| Improved migration prospects (J62) | Induce pre-migration investments in skills (J24) |
| Pre-migration investments in skills (J24) | Yield no returns in the domestic labor market (J79) |
| Migration through g2g intermediation (F22) | Increase in household income in Bangladesh (D19) |
| Winning the lottery (H27) | Increase in household income (D19) |
| Winning the lottery (H27) | Increase in labor income earned abroad (F16) |
| Winning the lottery (H27) | Increase in remittances sent back home (F24) |