Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP15984
Authors: Frederikke Kristensen; Paul Sharp
Abstract: The importance of testing and reporting has frequently been stated during the COVID-19 pandemic, but studies on the effectiveness of surveillance are still lacking. We thus turn to the last great epidemic, HIV/AIDS. In 1985 the first blood test for HIV became available, but prior to 1996 no effective medical treatment was available. We exploit the differential rollout of HIV surveillance across US states between 1985 and 2008 and find that HIV reporting helped reduce both AIDS cases and mortality. After the introduction of the effective treatment, HAART, there is no longer a significant effect on mortality, but the effect on reducing cases remains. For blacks, however, the impact on mortality is apparent even after 1996. Surveillance is therefore an important tool for combating epidemics, even in the presence of effective treatments, perhaps due to its impact on the avoidance of risky behavior.
Keywords: AIDS; HIV; Surveillance; United States
JEL Codes: I18; J18; N32
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| HIV reporting implementation (I10) | reduction in AIDS cases (O15) |
| HIV reporting implementation (I10) | reduction in mortality rates (I14) |
| HIV reporting implementation (I10) | reduction in risky behaviors associated with HIV transmission (I12) |
| HAART introduction in 1996 (C22) | dissipated mortality effect (J17) |
| HIV reporting implementation (I10) | persistent reduction in AIDS cases after HAART introduction (C41) |
| HIV reporting (I10) | significant impact on mortality rates for blacks after 1996 (I14) |